7/11/2021 Sunday

$SPY (Weekly, arithmetic scale) closed right at the channel resistance with a hanging man. Potentially signaling the top if we close the week with a bearish candle. If we push further up, we have the 443-450 level that other people are wait for which happens to be the top of the 20 year channel

$SPY (monthly, arithmetic scale)

$SPY (daily) closed right at the current channel with negative divergence as we rallied hard into close on friday. It would be an ideal bull trap if the market decided to finally punish complacency and greed of late fomo bulls. I plan to scale into $SPY puts 2 weeks out if we open below fridays highs and add on further weakness.

$NQ_F (monthly, athritmetic scale) at its 20 year channel top.

$CL Light crude oil futures. Weekly chart approaching channel resistance and currently in horizontal resistance zone as well as value area high spanning over 10 years. RSI overbought with negative divergence. I placed the blue $SPX overlap into the chart to see how it historically has some direct correlation with oil. Last feb-march they crashed and bottom together. Its just an extra signal that the market may be ready to turn.

$BTC bottomed and rallied with the market following the pandemic crash. It currently has a bearish H&S pattern and has not mustered up any signs of strength following test of the neckline. These could be clues of whats to come as $SPY is hitting its channel top.

So we have some charts lining up for pullback. What could be the catalyst?

Its almost too obvious similar sentiment right before 2020 february covid crash. Yet even then, people did not think it would affect the market until the market decided that it mattered. It flashed in the headlines for the first time in a while when we dropped last thursday… and we rallied back to ATH as if the market wanted us to forget about the covid crash and reassure us that it wont be affected by it (market likes to catch us by surprise) Number of positive cases are going up at an alarming rate even in countries with the highest vaccination rates.

One example, Florida averaging over 3k new cases now with over 10k new cases on friday. The moving average is likely going to trend sharply upwards as the delta variant spreads aggressively as seen in the other countries. As with any contagious disease, numbers will go up exponentially over time without intervention (currently no mask mandate). Imagine the headline 20k cases in 1 day in this state alone sometime by the end of the week as a likely scenario as we approach 7-10 from the holiday weekend with thousand of people celebrating without masks.

Missouri one of the least vaccinated state, currently getting hit hard 2.5k new cases hit on friday with the 7 day moving average rising up.

Remember, we’re not here to predict news. It always charts/setups first then sentiment and news if you want to sprinkle them in.

$AAPL (daily) long setup at 133.60

$ABNB (daily) short setup at 167.02 Long setup at 126.69

$AMD (daily) Long setup at 86.34

$AMZN (daily) long setup at 3434.61, 3292.30, 3197.33, 3070

$BA (daily) Long setup at 196 with .618fib at 193.91

$BIDU (daily) long setup at 164.80 and 146.61

$BP (daily) long at 22.86

$BYND (daily) short setup at 156. long setup at 108.60

$BZUN (4h) long setup at 26.10

$COIN (daily) long setup at 226.97

$COST (daily) long setup at 399.84

$CVS (daily) long setup at 76.44

$DAL (daily) long setup at 38.35

$F (daily) long setup at 13.13

$FUBO (daily) Long setup at 21.62

$GDX (daily) long setup at 32

$GE (daily) long setup at 11.84

$GRPN (daily) long at 38.25

$GS (daily) Long setup at 334.62

$IBM (daily) long setup at 133.60

$JMIA (daily) long setup at 13.61

$LMND (daily) long setup at 81 short setup at 127

$M (3H) long setup at 16

$MGM (3H) long setup at 37.63

$CSCO (4h) Long setup at 37.63

$TLRY (daily) long setup at 11.38

$TSLA (daily) long setup at 498 and 439.50

$UAA (4h) long setup at 18.67 and 17.66

$WW (4h) long setup at 27.76

$ZM (4h) long setup at 338.24