Lets take a look at $ES_F. We got the monster move off the false breakdown reversal after tagging the .618fib retrace. (setup was alerted on twitter which you should continue to follow)
$ES_F 4H
This is a short term bullish reversal. However Im seeing a potential monster short setup a little further up
$ES_F 4H Ideally this sets up by market open tomorrow which would see price move into channel resistance plus 4H DBD supply zone
I saw the same over the weekend and marked the same level 3143 lol
Thanks for posting a nice setup. Do you agree a long here until 3141?
No, unless youre already in long from the inverse H&S trade from earlier today. This would be no mans land, in between and away from resistance and support levels
Thanks for clarifying. Not long and will wait for the setup to play
Thanks for the information on the setup. I know, people get stuck if they don’t enter shorts at right spot.
3141 as per your chart is the Sept ES, correct? Thx
I use the continuous one ticker: ES1! on tradingview
Thx.
Curious as to how you defined the down channel? I can see 2 touches, but wouldn’t you need 3-4 at least to verify a channel?
2 on the bottom, 1 on top with bottom 2 providing the parallel angle. But key is the DBD zone which u can short on its own.
What does dbd stand for?
drop base drop
If you compare that move with VXX, that rise is SPY/SPX would coincide with VXX dropping previous demand zone and tagging it’s 50 and possibly 21ema (Daily). So would be perfectly setup for a bounce in VXX/VIX, as well.
Nice…. Thank you
One thing that now watching in detail caught my atention.
I remember you saying on twitter that 0.618FIB was tagged…. I did not notice your 0-100 were from 3231 – 2760… Cause it does also match the 0.618FIB of the major 2174 – 3397 (or 0.382 the other way), and I took it for granted you were referring to that one.
This is really beatuful… Solid proof of the importance of that pivot.
Is this chart for the June or September contract? Thanks for the setup!
I use the continuous current contract ticker: ES1! on tradingview
KPak, Congratulations on your subscription service. Truly appreciate your focus on ES/SPY/SPX here. thank you for the today’s post.
When looking at your 4H chart…..how do we try to time the move. In other words, since these levels are from 4H chart, could it take 2-3 day or 5-10 days to meet those levels? Just trying to see if I should buy weekly puts or monthly puts to allow time to hit those levels? thank you again, Kal
We dont time the move. Just wait for levels and then go into lower TF and see if theres a reversal setting up. Depends on risk tolerance but u can try to wait for 15min red candle at least or possiblr bearish pattern heading into supply such as a small ascending wedge or channel. Alot of times they react right away so I wouldnt buy a month out unless thats what you prefer with a larger size position if youre worried about theta. If youd been following my public twitter, I try to get at least 2-3 days from expiration. Rarely do same day expiration.
if validated where would you expect 3141 short setup take us back to? .618 fib or below? thanks!
could ride the channel down. Also note that we are now at level of daily 5/10dma which could carry the momentum down if we get a rejection where our short is set up
thanks. are you considering /es contracts or spy puts for this potential move? vxx/vix calls also?
VIX calls are expensive and SPY options are inflated as well with IV jacked up.
Ill be trading ES
thanks. are you considering /es contracts or spy puts for this? do you trade vxx/vix also?
Started following you on Twitter recently, and have been lurking here. I’ve never traded futures (can I short ES in a ROTH?), so I bought some SPXS pre-market this AM based on your chart.
Not sure but u should get a futures account if you are serious about it. The cheapest commission is AMP futures https://www.ampfutures.com/
Thanks – I’ll check it out. I’ve mostly just dabbled with stocks on Ameritrade for a while now. Successes have been have been a combo of luck and holding things long term, but I have decided I need to learn as much as possible for real success. I’m just starting to read up on futures, since it seems I could do more outside my 9-5..