8/7/2022 Sunday

$SPX (monthly, log scale) currently at the 18year purple trendline resistance along with converged monthly 5/9/20ema resistance zone, we should expect rejection here soon. Similar progression as the start of the 2000 and 2008 downtrends where we had the 8 plus month box consolidation along with major uptrend/channel breakdown to mark the top. Then following the initial breakdown dip, we rallied back into 5/9/20ema following several monthly candles consolidating sideways.

$SPX (monthly) closer look. Currently inside up move above prior months highs but we could easily see a rejection here at the purple trendline and converged 5/9/20ema and fail back below into prior months range.

$SPX (weekly, log scale) Almost +15% counter trend rally from the lows, we are now double topped slightly below May swing highs and will soon find out if this rally was for real or just a typical bear market rally. Ideally we stay below the 4177.51 (May highs), and maintain the bearish hidden divergence which indicates possible trend continuation downward. We are currently holding right above weekly 20ema/sma and a strong bearish reversal candle next week would close below this key moving averages and resume downward momentum/trend. If we push further above, we have monthly 9ema around 4190 and then confluence of anchored VWAP from ATHs and weekly trend line backtest (prior support, now resistance) around 4220. I remain short (currently holding $SPY bearish put spreads expiring Aug 29th) as we are currently sitting at resistance zone and have multiple bearish elements right above us.

$SPX (daily) double top with bearish ascending wedge. So far pulled back slightly with RSI negative divergence. Further above we have anchored VWAP and weekly (blue) trendline backtest around 4220 (think of it like a zone, not exact level) as well as the monthly 9ema around 4190.

$VIX (daily) at wedge support with positive RSI divergence – should see a bounce here. Compact falling wedge with lots of energy built up. Could potentially breakout next week with CPI on wednesday as potential catalyst.

$QQQ (monthly, log scale) Currently pushing inside up above last month’s range but at monthly 9/20ema resistance.

$QQQ (weekly, log scale) backtesting prior horizontal support level (now resistance) and at descending channel resistance. If resistance holds, expect to see a red weekly reversal candle.

$IWM (daily) double top after a near vertical rally of +14% in less than a month. High risk of pullback or in need of consolidation.

$DJI (weekly, arithmetic scale) so far rejecting at weekly channel resistance and daily supply.

$AAPL (monthly, log scale) backtesting the ascending channel and also at monthly supply. So technically we are at major resistances and should see a rejection here.

$AAPL (weekly) +30% rally in 7 weeks is not sustainable and at risk of pullback at any moment even without the current channel backtest resistance and monthly supply zone. Watch for weekly reversal candle.

$MSFT (weekly, arithmetic scale) backtesting H&S neckline and at channel resistance.

$GOOGL (weekly, log scale) at weekly 20ema/sma and trend line resistance.

$GOOGL (daily) consolidating below trend line resistance.

$AMZN (monthly, log scale) at 20ema resistance and horizontal H&S neckline

$AMZN (weekly) at H&S neckline backtest and anchored VWAP from Nov 2021 highs.

$TSLA (weekly, log scale) rejection candle at red trend line backtest and channel resistances.

$BRK.A (daily) so far rejected off the H&S neckline backtest and should continue downwards unless we get a major bullish reaction on ER 8/8 BMO.

$UNH (daily, log scale) made lower lows following rejection at daily supply. 5/9/20ema converged and holding at bearish ascending wedge support.

$NVDA (weekly, log scale) closed above uptrend line but right into weekly 20ema/sma resistance.

$V (weekly, log scale) closed right at descending triangle resistance.

$JNJ (monthly, log scale) working on false breakout reversal. Previous major FBRs were ominous market signals back in 2008 and 2020.

$CL_F crude oil future (monthly, log scale) Dark cloud cover reversal in June following 6 straight green months and at the peak of the rally from the 2020 lows and now bearish confirmation with lowest close 4 months. Also coming off rejection at major monthly supply (from the 2008 crash) and that bearish element is still in play. Oil has participated in major market corrections in the past as seen in recent examples in 2020 and 2008 so there’s potential this could signal the next strong leg down in the market. In 2008, we had the monthly bearish engulfing reversal at the top, followed by a red candle close above 9ema before continued weakness and eventual crash.

Watch for 5/9ema bearish crossover. Currently breaking down below ascending channel support. MACD converging and ready to bearcross on further weakness.

$CL_F (weekly) following the double top breakdown and then backtest rejection, now we have major breakdown below 2 year ascending channel support. The last major breakdown in oil was back in Feb 2020 when we had the H&S breakdown followed by massive crash in oil and the rest of the market. Will we get the same results? Not necessarily but when a leader shows change in character and weakness, we have to take note and… the market will take notice and react as well.

$XLE Energy sector (monthly, log scale) In june we had the bearish engulfing reversal at the top of the rally that started at the 2020 pandemic lows along with a false breakout reversal back below horizontal support. July monthly candle rallied at the uptrend line but remains below the horizontal resistance and did not push past the midpoint of the bearish engulfing candle so that candle remains the dominant force. Current monthly candle already showing major weaknesss and at risk of closing below the uptrendline support.

$IBB Biotech(Monthly, log scale) pushing bullihsly into the monthly supply zone and slightly above 9ema. Still early in the month so we could see a rejection in this zone.

$IBB (weekly) bullish breakout above downtrend line with 5/9/20ema converged.

$HGX Housing sector (monthly, arithmetic scale) Rallied right back into purple trendline resistance which has been a key inflection point in the past. So far rejecting off the trendline and monthly 9ema.

$HGX (weekly) currently double topped at prior swing high and purple trendline resistance. Bearish harami so potential reversal pattern and will need confirmation red candle lower close next week.

$IYR real estate ETF(weekly, arithmetic scale) double topped bearish harami at prior swing high and weekly 20ema and monthly 20ema resistance with RSI bearish hidden divergence

$IYT (monthly, Log scale) currently at monthly 20ema converged resistance with major box support backtest (resistance) waiting right above with monthly 9ema

$SMH (weekly, log scale) double top at horizontal resistance following a massive +29% rally from the lows with 5 straight weekly green candle close higher. This is not sustainable and will likely need consolidation or pullback soon. There is a bearish hidden RSI divergence intact as long as we do not make a higher high.

$XLF (weekly) at channel resistance with 20ema/sma right above. Bearish hidden RSI divergence.

$XLP (weekly, arithmetic scale) long upper wick rejection at 20sma and channel resistance. Watch for lower high to form right shoulder of H&S.

$XLV health care (daily, arithmetic scale) watch for the false breakout reversal move back below 130.70 which could set off the next leg down as we did previously in May.

$XLY consumer discretionary (weekly, arithmetic scale) shooting star rejection at previous horizontal support backtest and ascending channel resistance.

$KWEB (weekly) Bearflag breakdown and now backtest rejection with 5/9/20ema converged downward. We should see continuation downwards.

$HYG (weekly) tried to push above the prior week’s breakout candle highs but closed back below with a spinning top (indecision) candle right at weekly 20ema/sma resistance. Could see a pullback and failed breakout reversal. RSI bearish hidden divergence.

$BTC (weekly , log scale) inside week holding below 9ema resistance. Bearflag channel until proven otherwise and should expect price to resolve downwards.

Most of the setups are demand/long setups. Remember you can have a higher time frame bearish/bullish outlook in the market and still daytrade these levels in the opposite direction when they trigger for intraday gains. Remember you don’t have take every setup but knowing that you have plenty of solid setups to fall back on will make you more disciplined and avoid chop/weak/boredom trades. (Do not waste time looking for a trade or watching intraday 5/15min candles hoping for something to happen. Find a setup, set alerts, and forget about it until it triggers) Make sure to review prior triggered setups and see how they react. Also, if $SPY and the rest of the market is selling off aggressively and you are uncertain/confused – BEST to pass on long plays (or short plays if market is on an aggressive rally) or narrow focus onto just trading $SPY or sitting on hands . 1st Goal is to not lose money.

$AAL (daily) short setup at 15.14

$AMAT (daily) short setup at 113.20

$AMD (daily) long setup at 85.91

$BA (daily) short setup at 174.51

$BAC (4H) short setup at 35.66 and long setup at 30.09

$BIDU (daily) long setup at 120.15

$BMY (daily) long setup at 71.21

$COIN (daily) short setup at 124

$COST (4h) short setup at 559.76 and long setup at 514.09

$CROX (daily) long setup at 59

$CSCO (daily) short setup at 49.68 and long setup at 38.98

$CVS (daily) long setup at 96.21

$DKS (daily) short setup at 99.90

$EBAY (daily) long setup at 43.98

$F (daily) long setup at 12.68

$GE (daily) short setup at 76.69

$GOOGL (daily) long setup at 106.60

$GRPN (daily) long setup at 9.28

$LULU (daily) short setup at 352.78

$LVS (daily) long setup at 34.92

$LYFT (daily) short setup at 21.60

$MCD (daily) short setup 268.12

$MU (daily) short setup at 68.65

$NFLX (daily) long setup at 192.50

$NIO (daily) short setup at 25.40

$NKE (4h) long setup at 106.30 and (daily) short setup at 120.90

$OKTA (daily) short setup at 117.75

$OSTK (daily) long setup at 22.46

$PDD (daily) long setup at 39

$PFE (daily) long setup at 47.38

$PINS (daily) long setup at 17.53

$PTON (daily) short setup at 12.22

$SNOW (daily) short setup at 178.75

$TLRY (daily) Long setup at 2.80 (Massive demand zone where it had rallied +90% previously near all time lows.)

$TRIP (daily) short setup at 24.38

$TTD (daily) short setup at 53.40

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