5/8/2022 Sunday

$SPX (monthly, log scale) Following the breakdown in February below the key red trendline from 2009, we had 2 months of sideways consolidation that ended up with bears taking control as we closed April below 10month support with 5/9ema pushing from above and clinging on to 20ema support. We started this months candle with a backtest of the horizontal support (now resistance) and also rejecting once again at monthly 5/9ema which are both clearly pointing downward and downtrending.

$SPX (weekly) following the double top breakdown along with longer term purple trendline the prior week, we backtested the neckline support(now resistance) and rejected with a long upper wick weekly candle. Candle also rejected at the downtrending weekly 5/9ema – expect price to ride the moving averages until proven otherwise. We have short term targets at 3963 (daily demand) below.

$SPX (daily) double top rejection at 20ema and all the way ack below daily purple trendline support. We should see a move below the double top neckline support at 4063.72 and towards the daily demand at 3963.

$QQQ (monthly, log scale) 19month uptrend line breakdown in January followed by back to back monthly hammer candles holding above monthly 20ema – bear took control in April with a bearish engulfing candle with clear rejection at 5/9ema and clean close below 20ema for only the 2nd time since 2008 crash – potential early warning sign of trouble to come. Uptrend line support waiting below which could be a potential target.

$QQQ (weekly) double top and H&S breakdown. We backtest prior support (now resistance) and rejected with a long upper wick and closed back below. Rejected at 5ema as well so short term momentum remains strong. Bears are in full control as long as we remain below the neckline supports, we should have a lot of room to the downside. Initial targets are prior lower highs at 300 and then daily demand at 291.

$QQQ (daily) closed below 2 week horizontal support

$IWM (monthly, log scale) following the major 1 year consolidation breakdown and 3 month of sideways consolidation, we finally broke the range to the downside with 5/9/20ema converged resistance pushing price downward.

$IWM (weekly) we had the bearflag breakdown 2 weeks ago and riding 5ema which acted as resistance this week. Weekly demand below at 176.95

$DJI (monthly, arithmetic scale) After going sideways for a year, we finally got monthly support breakdown in April with 5/9ema converged. Currently rejecting at previous horizontal support and downtrending 5/9ema.

$DJI (weekly) currently riding weekly 20ema downwards. Keep things simple: as long as price remains below weekly 5/9/20ema trend is down.

Take a look at some international indices….

#DAX (weekly) After the bullish hammer, we pushed above prior weeks highs and weekly 5/9ema but it was a bull trap as we sold off closed with strong rejection candle. So far pretty straight forward and riding weekly 5/9ema downward.

#HSI (weekly, log scale) China index – pretty straight forward weekly price action riding 5/9ema down following the dead cat bounce off weekly demand into .618fib. After the bullish engulfing reversal candle the week before, no follow-through confirmation as price dumped after initial push above prior 2 week highs (likely pulling in and trapping some bulls) and sold off with the lowest weekly close this year.

$NIKKEI (weekly, log csale) held up pretty well compared to the others indices as it closed higher but still below weekly 5/9ema and sideways consolidation for the past 4 weeks. Bearish until proven otherwise

FTSE UK100 (weekly, log scale) nothing bullish here. After major rally back above the downtrend line and appearing to erase all the bearishness (cruel trap), sold off completely and closed below weekly 20ema after pushing rallying above it 7 weeks ago. 5/9/20ema converged bearish close so we could see strong bearish momentum downward.

$CL_F crude oil future (monthly, log scale) shooting star rejection in March at strong monthly supply (from crash of 2008) and horizontal & ascending channel resistance. April closed within prior months range with a spinning top (indecision or potential reversal) – still waiting for monthly bearish confirmation. Waiting to see if oil participates in the next major leg down in the market as it has in the past. Currently, looking to go 6 straight monthly close higher with a green candle.

$CL_F (weekly) we’re still right below that major monthly supply after the initial rejection in March. weekly 5/9/20ema converged and consolidating sideways. The monthly supply is the dominant force until proven otherwise.

$XLE Energy sector (weekly, log scale) Bullish breakout above horizontal resistance.

$IBB (weekly, Log scale) double top support backtest rejection. Also following the monthly close below the key horizontal support level at 122 , we now have back to back clear weekly close below it and this is a key win for the bears and should lead to further downside

$HGX Housing sector (monthly, arithmetic scale) Bearish Double top breakdown confirmed with monthly 5/9/20ema converged from above and trending downwards. Current monthly candle tried to rally but rejected at 5ema and wicked all the way down so far. Historically when housing sector corrects, $SPX eventually follows.

$HGX (weekly) So far rejecting at the downtrending weekly 5/9ema. Bears are in control until proven otherwise.

$IYR real estate ETF (weekly, arithmetic scale)  H&S breakdown

from 4/24 newsletter

$IYT (monthly, log scale) wedge breakdown with close below 5/9ema for the first time in 6 months and its possible this could cause a strong shift in momentum downwards with 20ema ready to turn down as well on further weakness. MACD bear crossed.

$IYT Transport ETF (weekly, log scale) Following major wedge breakdown, we got the backtest with back to back inverted hammer rejection at downtrending weekly 5/9ema and now lower weekly close following rejection at 5ema. Momentum clearly favoring continuation downward.

$SMH semiconductor (monthly, log scale) breakdown below 10 month support zone and monthly 5/9/20ema converged. Currently backtest prior support (now resistance) and 20ema and rejected down with long upper wick.

$SMH semiconductor (weekly) H&S breakdown and then backtest rejection on 3 consecutive weeks with downtrending 5/9ema acting as resistance. Currently sitting at another horizontal support but considering the bearish breakdown likely does not hold and we get an eventual move toward the major channel support.

$XLF financial (monthly, log scale) consolidated sideways for 1 year following rejection at major channel resistance and now major change in character as we have a monthly breakdown below this base with close below 5/9/20ema converged. MACD bearcrossed. Likely headed toward backtest of prior ATH breakout level around 30.96

$XLF (weekly) H&S breakdown and backtest rejection

$XLP consumer staples (monthly, log scale) shooting star at major trendline resistance at ATHs with negative RSI divergence. Watch for bearish engulf candle this month to confirm the reversal.

$XLP (weekly) shooting star to bearish engulfing reversal at ATHs which was followed by false breakout reversal back below prior ATHs.

$XLV (weekly, log scale) Rejection at trendline backtest resistance with negative RSI divergence and close back below prior ATHs with Harami followed by bearish confirmation candle close below weekly 5/9/20ema converged. Headed for the horizontal support level which may not hold the next time its tested.

$XLY consumer discretionary (weekly) bearish H&S breakdown followed by backtest rejection. Should resume lower. Bears in control.

$KWEB China internet ETF (monthly, log scale)  monthly inside bar in April and now pushing lower this month below prior all time low support.

$KWEB (weekly) riding 5/9ema downward. Bears in control as long a price remain below the moving averages

$HYG High yield corp bond (weekly, log scale) breakdown below prior swing low support.

from 4/17 newsletter

$BTC (weekly, log scale) bearflag channel breakdown and continuation

$AAPL (monthly, log scale) along with the rejection at ATHs at major channel resistance, we’ve been consolidating sideways with 4 months with hammer candles that wicked right above monthly 5/9ema support until April when we closed below the 5/9ema and monthly candle body support level. Now current month backtesting that level and 5/9ema and rejected/wicked all the way down into channel support. 5/9ema pushing down from above. If channel support is breached we could see a strong downward momentum. MACD bearcross

$AAPL (weekly) rejected at 5/9/20ema converged once again and now sitting at 2 year channel support. Weekly demand zone waiting right below but its already been used once before for a major rally and may not provide much support the next time down.

$MSFT (monthly, log scale) following 2 year uptrend line breakdown, we have not made a downward move until now as we closed below 10 month consolidation support and 5/9ema (last time we closed below monthly 9ema was over 3 years ago). Currently candle rejected near the highs at monthly 5/9ema and wicked back below horizontal support. Sitting on top of 20ema with 5/9ema converged from above. Could see eventual move to the bottom channel support about 10% below current price. MACD bearcross

$MSFT (weekly) back to back to back weeks of rejection at 5/9ema and below H&S neckline support. Inside bar. We should see price start to trend downward more aggressively soon toward the bottom of the long term channel.

$GOOGL (monthly) nasty breakdown below 9 monthly consolidation box and its lows with close below monthly 5/9/20ema converged. Currently rejecting and holding below 20ema. MACD bearcross.

$GOOGL (weekly) back to back weekly rejection at channel backtest. Path of least resistance is down. Bears in control.

$AMZN (monthly, log scale) So far bearish breakdown below 14 year uptrend line and sideways 18 month wedge and then after 3 months of hovering sideways we got a breakdown below the 3 month support with a clear bearish close below monthly 5/9/20ema. Current month following-through and appears headed for the previous breakout level around 2012.

$AMZN (weekly) slicing through weekly demand zone.

$TSLA (monthly) following rejection at life time channel resistance has been coiling up with 5/9/20ema converged.

$TSLA (weekly) so far series of lower highs and lower lows. Closed below weekly 5/9/20ema converged 2 weeks in a row. Inside bar – watch inside down move below this weeks lows and then potential bearish breakdown of symmetrical triangle support.

$BRK.A (monthly, log scale) Dark cloud cover at ATH and channel resistance and now looking to confirm reversal with bearish close this month.

$BRK.A (daily) descending triangle breakdown with follow-through all the way down back inside previous channel (false breakout reversal). Lower high rejection at downtrending 5/9ema and now sitting at up trendline support. Break below support then we likely head down toward current channel support

$FB (monthly, log scale) after closing back below prior resistance level, current monthly candle attempted to rally back above but sent right back below with long upper wick.

$UNH (monthly, log scale) shooting star at ATHs and channel resistance. Watch for bearish confirmation of reversal as we have already pushed below prior month’s lows.

$UNH (weekly) closed back below horizontal level after attempting to revere. Could not push past midway point of prior weeks candle for a morning star bullish reversal. Backtesting prior support, now resistance at the moment.

$NVDA (monthly, log scale) breakdown below 9 month horizontal support and monthly 5/9/20ema converged. MACD bearcross.

$NVDA (weekly) Long upper wick rejection candle following backtest of channel plus horizontal support. Currently holding below channel for back to back weeks and looks headed for weekly demand at 147.87

$JNJ (weekly,monthly) weekly false breakout reversal and monthly working on bearish engulfing reversal at ATHs. Bears in complete control.

Most of the setups are demand/long setups. Remember you can have a higher time frame bearish outlook in the market and still daytrade these levels when they trigger for intraday gains. Remember you don’t have take every setup but knowing that you have plenty of solid setups to fall back on will make you more disciplined and avoid chop/weak/boredom trades. (Do not waste time looking for a trade or watching intraday 5/15min candles hoping for something to happen. Find a setup, set alerts, and forget about it until it triggers) Make sure to review prior triggered setups and see how they react. Also, if $SPY and the rest of the market is selling off aggressively and you are uncertain/confused – BEST to pass on long plays or narrow focus onto just trading $SPY or sitting on hands. 1st Goal is to not lose money.

$AAPL (daily) long setups at 151.45, 141.24, 133.46

AMC (daily) long setup at 12.61 and 9.90

$AMZN (daily) long setup at 2044

$BAC (daily) long setup at 32.97

$BABA (daily) long setup at 85.87

$BBBY (daily) long setup at 9,20

$BTC (daily) long setup at 30842

$C (daily) long setup at 43.51

$CCL (daily) long setup at 13.91

$CRWD (daily) long setup at 144.36

$CSCO (daily) long setup at 45.14

$CVS (daily) long setup at 93.33 

$DAL (daily) long setup at 36.98

$DDOG (daily) long setup at 96.92

$DKNG (weekly) long setup at 12.67

$DKS (daily) long setup at 85.57

$DOGE (daily) long set 0.0743

$ES_F (weekly, daily) long setup at 3965 (larger weekly demand at 3937)

$EXPE (daily) long setup at 124.94

$F (daily) long setup at 12.89

$FDX (daily) long setup at 172.53

$GOOGL (weekly, daily) long setup at 2053 and 2028

$GS (daily) long setup at 274.27

$HD (daily) long setup at 281.14

$IBM (daily) Long setup at 126.60

INTC (daily) long setup at 40.89

$LMND (4h) long setup at 17.32 ***ER 5/9 AMC

$LMT (daily) long setup at 398

$LOW (daily) long setup at 187.43

$M (daily) long setup at 18.14

$MCD (daily) Long setup at 237.13

$MS (daily) long setup at 75.15 and 70.87

$MSFT (daily) long setup at 266.23

$MU (daily) long setup at 64.56

$NET (daily) long setup at 52.87

$NFLX (daily) Long setup at 162.91

$NKE (daily) long setup at 100.64

$NVDA (daily) long setup at 157

$ORCL (daily) long setup at 67.11

$OSTK (daily) long setup at 29.04 and 22.46

$PEP (daily) long setup at 155.45

$QCOM (daily) long setup at 125.20

$QQQ (daily) long setup at 291.41. Could see support at prior swing low at 300 as well.

$RACE (daily) long setup at 194.49

$SPX (daily) long setup at 3963.

$TSLA (daily) long setup at 780.61

$UPS (daily) long setup at 172.93

$UPST (daily) Long setup at 62.27

$V (daily) long setup at 182.66

11 thoughts on “5/8/2022 Sunday”

  1. Hello Kevin, your daily demand was SPOT ON. Learning a lot from your charting. Appreciate it. I am trying to add those to my charts. Which daily demand indicator in TV are you using? Or is it custom? How did you get that SPX daily demand and weekly demand?

    thank you!

    – Mike

    1. Its not an indicator, for demand – you find a red base candle where you geta stampede of consecutive green candles which I highlight with yellow.
      Each timeframe has different demand/supply levels.
      The level price point is the opebing price of the red candle base.
      Please watch the 2 videos on supply/demand in the faq/edu section for more details on the concept.

  2. After being in the markets for 5 years (26yo), I self-taught myself everything but I was a perma bull. After a huge hit in my portfolio, it was time to make the investment. Excited to learn from you and appreciate everything. I had my first winning trade today in a while, thanks to your inverse head and shoulders tweet.

    1. When price reacts off any major supply, you expect it to bounce off for a solid move. This is a historic supply zone and we havent yet really pulled back if u zoom out on the monthly chart so expect a move to happen eventually

  3. Kevin! Thanks for your callout on great entires. You may have posted this, and forgive me if I missed it. your TLT swing exit(I’m still in). It pulled back a bit, I didn’t see if you trimmed yesterday when we went up, or are holding since It’s June. I like your pin of entries and exits. I know you are not having a buy and sell service, but perhaps having a thread of positions you closed that lasts longer in case someone misses the pinned post and a new pinned post goes up, there is no search feature in telegram to see when you exited rather than scrolling. This could be helpful for backtesting and reviewing successful trades, and showing your success to others(I’ve shared your methodology and TA with many others who have joined as well. Just a thought.

    Enjoy your weekend!

Leave a Comment

%d bloggers like this: