5/1/2022 Sunday

$SPX (monthly, log scale) We’ve had the bearish engulfing reversal at ATHs and channel resistance. We then crossed back down below the key trendline extending up from 2009, backtested and rejected all the way down with a bearish monthly breakdown below 10 month horizontal support. Also you can see the prior 3 monthly candles all had long bottom wicks and tried to hold above 5/9ema. However there’s no doubt that bears took control with this monthly with a full red candle near the lows. Holding at monthly 20ema support but that can flip easily downward as momentum from the breakdown and 5/9ema favors further downside.

$SPX (weekly) As we expected, we got the break toward February lows with a multiple support breakdown (double top, horizontal and purple trendline) and headed toward the daily demand zone at 3963 and weekly demand at 3943.

from last Sunday

$SPX (weekly) the shaded area is the area below weekly 20sma. What had been the clear and reliable support during the 2 year rally is now resistance in the downtrend along with 5/9ema until proven otherwise.

$SPX (daily) horizontal and purple trendline (dual support) breakdown. Unless we see a quick reversal with daily close back above purple trendline, we should head lower toward daily demand at 3963

$QQQ (monthly, log scale) 19month uptrend line breakdown in January followed by back to back monthly hammer candles holding it above monthly 20ema and trying to get back into prior box consolidation range. After some uncertainty, we now have a full engulfing monthly bearish candle with clear rejection at 5/9ema and clean close below 20ema for only the 2nd time since 2008 crash – so could potentially be a early warning sign of trouble to come. Uptrend line support waiting below which could be a potential target.

$QQQ (weekly) similar to $SPX, double top breakdown with close below horizontal and purple trendline support and headed toward demand levels below.

$QQQ (daily) if double top breakdown holds, we should head toward 300 which is a nice round number and prior swing low support. Below that we have daily and weekly demand around 291.

$IWM (monthly, log scale) After the major wedge breakdown, we had back to back spinning top candle (indecision) and barely holding on to monthly 20ema support. Finally we have a clear direction with a bearish engulfing candle rejecting and closing below 5/9/20ema converged.

$IWM (weekly) Following the bearflag breakdown the week before, momentum carried us all the way down to close below January and February lows.

$DJI (monthly, arithmetic scale) After going sideways for a year, we finally got monthly support breakdown with 5/9ema converged. Holding above 20ema/sma for now.

$DJI (weekly, arithmetic scale) series of lower high and lower lows – constructive bearish price action and now catching some momentum as we push below weekly 5/9/20ema after rejecting at 20sma and grinding at channel resistance previously for a whole month.

$CL_F crude oil future (monthly, log scale) shooting star rejection in March at strong monthly supply (from crash of 2008) and horizontal & ascending channel resistance. April closed within prior months range with a spinning top (indecision or potential reversal) – still waiting for monthly bearish confirmation. Still waiting to see if oil participates in the next major leg down in the market as it has in the past.

$CL_F (weekly) consolidating sideways with 5/9/20ema converged. Considering rejection at major monthly supply right above, it favors price eventually resolving downward with breakdown from current ascending channel.

$XLE Energy sector (monthly, log scale) rejected at horizontal resistance with a spinning top and possible bearish harami both of which are potential reversal signals when they appear at the top of a extensive run 2 year rally. If the overall market were to correct, $XLE will have to join in at some point so keep an eye a monthly bearish confirmation close below recent monthly candles and back below the channel for a false breakout reversal.

$XLE (weekly) weekly timeframe already had the bearish engulfing reversal the previous week and with bearish confirmation as we closed below prior week range and weekly 5/9ema which is now resistance pushing from above.

$IBB (monthly, Log scale) monthly close back below major horizontal resistance (false breakout reversal)

$IBB (weekly, log scale) Double top breakdown and close back below major horizontal resistance.

$HGX Housing sector (monthly, arithmetic scale) Bearish Double top breakdown confirmed with monthly 5/9/20ema converged from above and trending downwards. Historically when housing sector corrects, $SPX follow and thats what we are seeing now

$HGX (weekly) So far rejecting at the downtrending weekly 5/9ema. Momentum clearly downwards and expect trend to continue until proven otherwise.

$IYR real estate ETF (weekly, arithmetic scale)  Shooting star rejection at .618fib with a huge bearish confirmation candle with close below weekly 5/9/20ema. Strong downward momentum should send it toward the H&S neckline with potential for ugliness if we breach support.

from last Sunday

$IYT Transport ETF (weekly, log scale) Following major wedge breakdown, we got the backtest with back to back inverted hammer rejection at downtrending weekly 5/9ema. Momentum clearly favoring continuation downward.

$ITY (monthly, log scale) wedge breakdown with close below 5/9ema for the first time in 6 months and its possible this could cause a strong shift in momentum downwards with 20ema ready to turn down as well on further weakness. MACD bear crossed.

$SMH semiconductor (monthly, log scale) breakdown below 10 month support zone and monthly 5/9/20ema converged.

$SMH semiconductor (weekly) H&S breakdown and then backtest rejection on back to back weeks with downtrending 5/9ema. Currently sitting at another horizontal support but considering the bearish breakdown likely does not hold and we get an eventual move toward the major channel support.

$XLF financial (monthly, log scale) consolidated sideways for 1 year following rejection at major channel resistance and now major change in character as we have a monthly breakdown below this base with close below 5/9/20ema converged. MACD bearcrossed. Likely headed toward backtest of prior ATH breakout level around 30.96

$XLF financial (weekly, arithmetic scale) H&S breakdown

$XLP consumer staples (monthly, log scale) shooting star at major trendline resistance at ATHs with negative RSI divergence.

$XLP (weekly) shooting star to bearish engulfing reversal at ATHs. Also false breakout reversal back below prior ATH.

from last Sunday

$XLV (weekly, log scale) Rejection at trendline backtest resistance with negative RSI divergence and close back below prior ATHs with Harami followed by bearish confirmation candle close below weekly 5/9/20ema converged – and now clear break back below weekly 20ema with 5/9/20ema converged trending downward from above. Looks headed for the horizontal support level which may not hold the next time its tested.

$XLY consumer discretionary (weekly) bearish H&S breakdown.

from last Sunday

$KWEB China internet ETF (monthly, log scale)  monthly inside bar. No sign of bullish reversal yet as its been riding 5ema all the way down as resistance.

$BTC (weekly, log scale) bearflag channel breakdown

$AAPL (monthly, log scale) along with the rejection at ATHs at major channel resistance, we’ve been consolidating sideways with 4 months with hammer candles that wicked right above monthly 5/9ema support until April when we closed below the 5/9ema. Definitely a bearish change in character and could lead to shift in momentum downwards where we breakdown from the 2 year channel. MACD ready to bearcross

$AAPL (weekly) rejecting and closing below 5/9/20ema for 3rd week in a row. 2year channel support waiting below.

$MSFT (monthly, log scale) following 2 year uptrend line breakdown, we have not made a downward move until now as we closed the monthly candle below 10 month consolidation support and below 5/9ema – last time we closed below monthly 9ema was over 3 years ago. MACD bearcross

$MSFT (weekly) back to back weeks of rejection at 5/9ema and below H&S neckline support. We have not had a weekly close below this support for over 9 months so it is a significant breakdown and we could price start to trend downward more aggressively soon.

$GOOGL (monthly) nasty breakdown below 9 monthly consolidation box and its lows with close below monthly 5/9/20ema converged. MACD bearcross.

$GOOGL (weekly) horizontal breakdown all the way to channel breakdown. Looks headed down to weekly demand at 2028

$AMZN (monthly, log scale) we got the bearish breakdown below 14 year uptrend line and sideways 18 month wedge and then after 3 months of hovering sideways we got a breakdown below the 3 month support with a clear bearish close below monthly 5/9/20ema

$AMZN (weekly) at demand zone following 3 month support breakdown on increased volume. Below current level we likely head down toward 2000.

$TSLA (monthly) following rejection at life time channel resistance has been coiling up with 5/9/20ema converged.

$TSLA (weekly) so far series of lower highs and lower lows. Closed below weekly 5/9/20ema converged. Watch for the breakdown below symmetrical triangle support.

$BRK.A (monthly, log scale) Dark cloud cover at ATH and channel resistance.

$BRK.A (daily, log scale) descending triangle breakdown with follow-through all the way down back into previous channel (false breakout reversal). Approaching uptrend line support.

$FB (monthly, log scale) Following the channel backtest rejection, closed the monthly candle back below prior breakout resistance level.

$UNH (monthly, log scale) shooting star at ATHs and channel resistance

$UNH (weekly, Log scale) bearish harami with bearish confirmation and follow-through move with close below weekly 5/9ema.

from last Sunday

$JNJ (daily) false breakout reversal and now testing channel support after bearish H&S breakdown with close below 5/9/20ema.

$JNJ (1H) closer look at the H&S breakdown. Currently sitting at channel support.

$NVDA (monthly, log scale) breakdown below 9 month horizontal support and monthly 5/9/20ema converged. MACD bearcross.

$NVDA (weekly) Following the strong horizontal support breakdown the week before, it broke below the channel as expected and looks headed for the weekly demand at 147.87

from last Sunday

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Most of the setups are demand/long setups. Remember you can have a higher time frame bearish outlook in the market and still daytrade these levels when they trigger for intraday gains. Remember you don’t have take every setup but knowing that you have plenty of solid setups to fall back on will make you more disciplined and avoid chop/weak/boredom trades. (Do not waste time looking for a trade or watching intraday 5/15min candles hoping for something to happen. Find a setup, set alerts, and forget about it until it triggers) Make sure to review prior triggered setups and see how they react. Also, if $SPY and the rest of the market is selling off aggressively and you are uncertain/confused – BEST to pass on long plays or narrow focus onto just trading $SPY or sitting on hands. 1st Goal is to not lose money

$AAPL (daily) long setups at 151.45, 141.24, 133.46

AMC (daily) long setup at 12.61 and 9.90

$AMZN (daily) long setup at 2044

$BAC (daily) long setup at 32.97

$BKNG (daily) long setup at 2010 and 1653 *** ER 5/4 after market close

$BTC (daily) long setup at 30842

$C (daily) long setup at 43.51

$CCL (daily) long setup at 13.91

$CMG (4H) long setup at 1332.46

$CSCO (daily) long setup at 45.14

$CVS (daily) long setup at 93.33  and 76.44 ***ER 5/4 AMC

$DAL (daily) long setup at 36.98

$DDOG (daily) long setup at 96.92 ***ER 5/5 BMO

$DKNG (weekly) long setup at 12.67 ***ER 5/6 BMO

$DKS (daily) long setup at 85.57

$DOGE (daily) long set 0.0743

$ES_F (daily) long setup at 3965 (larger weekly demand at 3937)

$F (daily) long setup at 12.89

$FDX (daily) long setup at 172.53

$GOOGL (weekly, daily) long setup at 2053 and 2028

$GS (daily) long setup at 274.27

$HD (daily) long setup at 281.14

$IBM (daily) Long setup at 126.60

INTC (daily) long setup at 40.89

$LMND (4h) long setup at 17.32

$LMT (daily) long setup at 398

$LOW (daily) long setup at 187.43

$LULU (daily) long setup at 313.38

$LYFT (4H ) Long setup at 30.29

$MCD (daily) Long setup at 237.13

$MS (daily) long setup at 75.15 and 70.87

$MSFT (daily) long setup at 266.23

$MU (daily) long setup at 64.56

$NVDA (daily) long setup at 157

$ORCL (daily) long setup at 67.11

$OSTK (daily) long setup at 29.04 and 22.46

$PEP (daily) long setup at 155.45

$QCOM (daily) long setup at 125.20

$QQQ (daily) long setup at 291.41

$RACE (daily) long setup at 194.49

$SNAP (daily) long setup at 25.74

$SNOW (daily) Long setup at 169

$SPX (daily) long setup at 3963.

$TSLA (daily) long setup at 780.61

$TWLO (daily) long setup at 109.39

$UPS (daily) long setup at 172.93

$UPST (daily) Long setup at 62.27

$V (daily) long setup at 182.66

7 thoughts on “5/1/2022 Sunday”

  1. Hi Kevin, Is this the first time we’re including JNJ in the leaders? Would sector is it representing for? XLP?
    Do you chart Commodity index like GSCI to include a peak at that overall sector? Looks like interest rates have something to do with that index which would also be another strong indicator.

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